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Dec 26, 2012
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it is on the back of sandy. it's moving into the materials and industrials. >> weiss, the rlx hit a historic high in early december. gap down, abercrombie down ralph lauren down. even though i called you my wife. >> i was going to let that go. i was assuming you were talking to pete. in macy's, i've been losing money. the stocks are extremely cheap. a lot of the retailers are cheap, but you can't ignore the data. there's been no reason to really feel good about retail except for the housing market. discount the employment numbers because of participation rate. i'm with joe. i think you have to take the money off because the next move that's going to be in the market is going to be in the cyclical stocks if you get a deal on the fiscal cliff. if not, then retail goes worse. we analyzed this last week and said there's big drag. >> so, doc, is the trade the prudent trade you have to take some money off the table in the retail space? the consumer, the data has shown to be good and then you get holiday numbers from m
it is on the back of sandy. it's moving into the materials and industrials. >> weiss, the rlx hit a historic high in early december. gap down, abercrombie down ralph lauren down. even though i called you my wife. >> i was going to let that go. i was assuming you were talking to pete. in macy's, i've been losing money. the stocks are extremely cheap. a lot of the retailers are cheap, but you can't ignore the data. there's been no reason to really feel good about retail except for the...
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Dec 26, 2012
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and the senseless slaughters in sandy hook, connecticut, spending less and giving more to charities. >> jan, i don't want to minimize any of this, the damage that this storm has already inflicted in parts of the country and could still inflict, but we were in an environment where people were just not shopping to begin with. do you think retailers could use this as a good excuse going forward? >> yeah, bert's here with me the four horsemen and apocalypse. i have to agree with him and there's really not a lot of time left. today was going to be a very, very big day, bases where it's not being snow affected. i think you'll see a strong performance. i know i was tough, the biggest deal. the fiscal cliff killed us. retailers went deep on profession and they said, no. i thrill city nyse's will be bert. >> do you think it's getting better in 2013, bert? >> 2013 starts the retail ice age and maybe the 500 to 1,000-day retail recession. shopping centers, malls-based, starting to refinance some of them will create record vak kiss on the laws. >> which stocks specifically are going to suffer in
and the senseless slaughters in sandy hook, connecticut, spending less and giving more to charities. >> jan, i don't want to minimize any of this, the damage that this storm has already inflicted in parts of the country and could still inflict, but we were in an environment where people were just not shopping to begin with. do you think retailers could use this as a good excuse going forward? >> yeah, bert's here with me the four horsemen and apocalypse. i have to agree with him and...
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Dec 27, 2012
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it's not all on sandy. >> depends how you read that metric. when the story is finally told, not .7%, somewhere higher than that. m moo. >> maybe it will. it's not all sandy, people cutting back already, whether military families cutting back dramatically because of sequestration or people who work at defense contractors out of jobs. there's a lot of bad heading our way. to josh's point, people will still send their kids to school and still go shopping but everybody is going to cut back how they shop. they will be trading down, judge, i think. and these idiots from harry reid to the president on top and john boehner included, i'm equal opportunity, it's horrible. >> we heard the same thing at the end of 2011 europe would spill to theist and the u.s. consumer was changing their habits. i'd like to point out the discretionary consumer is the second best in the market this year, 21%. any whoever made a bet against the u.s. consumer -- >> what kind of pullback are we talking about? if you guys like the market through the early part of 2013 -- >> i
it's not all on sandy. >> depends how you read that metric. when the story is finally told, not .7%, somewhere higher than that. m moo. >> maybe it will. it's not all sandy, people cutting back already, whether military families cutting back dramatically because of sequestration or people who work at defense contractors out of jobs. there's a lot of bad heading our way. to josh's point, people will still send their kids to school and still go shopping but everybody is going to cut...
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Dec 29, 2012
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sandy road ashore devastating several areas and the senate rejected a republican amendment to cut the immediate cost to just 23 million clearing the way for final action on the $60 billion bill. the bill now goes to the house where its passage is uncertain because of the non-sandy-related spending items that are in the bill. typical sausage making for washington. >>> let's get to our panel. here now is blake zeff, former obama campaign aide and washington editor. robert, have you heard anything in the last couple of hours that suggests to you that somehow by monday mitch mcconnell and harry reid will sing kumbaya, pass something in the senate that also passes the house? >> i'm not so sure they'll be sing kumbaya, but the real story today is that there's movement on capitol hill. reid and mcconnell come out of that white house meeting and they're ready to haggle over some differences. what i expect to come to the floor is what president obama's talking about a 250 threshold for rates, maybe an amt attached to it and maybe have unemployment attached to it, but that's it. that's what the
sandy road ashore devastating several areas and the senate rejected a republican amendment to cut the immediate cost to just 23 million clearing the way for final action on the $60 billion bill. the bill now goes to the house where its passage is uncertain because of the non-sandy-related spending items that are in the bill. typical sausage making for washington. >>> let's get to our panel. here now is blake zeff, former obama campaign aide and washington editor. robert, have you heard...
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Dec 26, 2012
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now, sandy was another issue. 16% of consumers in the northeast said that sandy impacted them. so that is a significant fark tor. the other issue is, luxury was impacted because this year corporate america held fewer christmas parties than in the past, because they didn't want to be able to broadcast their largess and all their activities. keep in mind, 40% of retailers driven by the corporate christmas parties, when they were cut back, it affected the shoppers who were buying the holiday dresses and jewelry. >> so is this -- i mean, if you're looking for the true source of pain here, brit, in the trade, is it discounters? is it luxury? where are we going to notice this miss the most? >> well, what happened this year is, before the season started, 74% of consumers said they were redig to avoid their credit cards as much as possible. so when you look at the winners this christmas, you look at walmart, you look at sam's, you look at big lots, you look at amazon, and look at the people that really did well this christmas, you know, and dollar tree, think about that. you've got a d
now, sandy was another issue. 16% of consumers in the northeast said that sandy impacted them. so that is a significant fark tor. the other issue is, luxury was impacted because this year corporate america held fewer christmas parties than in the past, because they didn't want to be able to broadcast their largess and all their activities. keep in mind, 40% of retailers driven by the corporate christmas parties, when they were cut back, it affected the shoppers who were buying the holiday...
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Dec 26, 2012
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would you put this mainly down to the fiscal cliff worries, to the aftermath of hurricane sandy, or to weather? >> i think all of the above. i think the fact that we have this sort of fiscal cliff overhang is sort of pulling back people from spending money but i think the weather has a huge impact on it and i think one of the big things to look at is the comparison to last year. last year there was no weather. it was abnormally warm, one of the warmest decembers on record. we had very, very strong traffic levels. any time we have weather this year, there will be a head wind and when we have the kind of weather we're seeing today, that will be a significant head wind. i think the fact that mastercard and sharper track pulled back their numbers doesn't bode well for the rest of the year because now of course we're up against it and we're looking at some really significant weather on a big shopping day today and then also tomorrow. >> does that show up in better numbers for online retail? >> i think in principle, yes. i think there will be more people actually shopping today online than t
would you put this mainly down to the fiscal cliff worries, to the aftermath of hurricane sandy, or to weather? >> i think all of the above. i think the fact that we have this sort of fiscal cliff overhang is sort of pulling back people from spending money but i think the weather has a huge impact on it and i think one of the big things to look at is the comparison to last year. last year there was no weather. it was abnormally warm, one of the warmest decembers on record. we had very,...
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Dec 27, 2012
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a lot of things being thrown at the american consumer, the tragedy in connecticut, sandy, fiscal cliff, everything. with that in mind where do you see consumer spending, consumer discretionary spending next year? >> i think in 2013 there's always a place that excels in consumer discretionary and it's based on product, price and where they can expand in terms of channel extension. in 2013 i think we'll see names like nordstrom where they are accelerating the rate of growth. i think we'll see urban outfitters continue their turnaround, perhaps in an accelerated pace in 2013, and i think you're going to continue to see, particularly in the first half of the year, the demand for products from michael kors do well. second half of the year is a different story and perhaps the turnaround of tiffany's to be the name for the second half. >> meantime, r.j., i think you would agree retail remembers scrambling right now because consumer confidence is plunging. three reports in a row that have been pretty dismal. >> yeah, i would agree. i think we're looking for a bit of a pullback in 2013, not onl
a lot of things being thrown at the american consumer, the tragedy in connecticut, sandy, fiscal cliff, everything. with that in mind where do you see consumer spending, consumer discretionary spending next year? >> i think in 2013 there's always a place that excels in consumer discretionary and it's based on product, price and where they can expand in terms of channel extension. in 2013 i think we'll see names like nordstrom where they are accelerating the rate of growth. i think we'll...
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Dec 27, 2012
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there was a bill introduced by the ranking member of the ways and means committee in the house, sandy levin, that called for this legislation. the speaker was going to bring it up to kill it, but he couldn't kill it and then we moved to plan "b," the debacle of all debacles. it's the mother of all debacles. that was brought up in an effort to send us something. he couldn't even pass it among the republicans it was so absurd, he meaning the speaker, so it's very clear now, mr. president, that the speakers's number one goal is to get elected speaker on january 3rd. the house is not even here. he's told me it will give him two days to get back here, not two days, 48 hours. they don't even have enough of the leadership here to meet to talk about it. they have done it with conference calls. people are spread all over the country because the speaker is basically waiting for january aboutrd. now, the president campaigned on raising taxes on people making more than $250,000 a year. the bush era tax cuts will expire at the end of this year. obama was elected with a surplus of about 3 million v
there was a bill introduced by the ranking member of the ways and means committee in the house, sandy levin, that called for this legislation. the speaker was going to bring it up to kill it, but he couldn't kill it and then we moved to plan "b," the debacle of all debacles. it's the mother of all debacles. that was brought up in an effort to send us something. he couldn't even pass it among the republicans it was so absurd, he meaning the speaker, so it's very clear now, mr....
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Dec 26, 2012
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we've had the european debt crisis, we've had, you know, we've had the elections, we've had super storm sandy, we've had so many events, fiscal clifr, of course, being rerated by s&p. >> but the number one thing we're not talking about is the fed. you have this unbelievable accommodating monetary policy and a signal from the fed they're going to continue that to the tune of a trillion dollars a year. so, that's why the things has been conventional. this has been anything but a conventional year. if you didn't have that level of stimulus, i think the market would have gone a little sideways this year. >> right. let's talk about the big trades in today's session, from trash to treasure. can some of 2012's biggest losers be the best bets for 2013. this is, in fact, what we saw in today's session. these are some of the worst performers of the year, but in today's market, today's session, they actually led the markets. research in motion was a head scratcher of a move. >> the research in motion is very interesting, because i thought the move was over last week when it had that, seemed to be a blow
we've had the european debt crisis, we've had, you know, we've had the elections, we've had super storm sandy, we've had so many events, fiscal clifr, of course, being rerated by s&p. >> but the number one thing we're not talking about is the fed. you have this unbelievable accommodating monetary policy and a signal from the fed they're going to continue that to the tune of a trillion dollars a year. so, that's why the things has been conventional. this has been anything but a...
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Dec 27, 2012
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new sales. 400,000 cars that were damaged over a period of time in the storms. 250,000 superstorm sandy here. 40,000 pounds of copper go into a car. housing has turned up a little bit. you have 400 pounds of copper in every new home at least, not even the commercial buildings. >> george -- >> that could being. >> -- would you say that gold is no longer a good safe haven? to me it's been acting like a risk asset and not a safe haven anymore. >> people don't understand what is meant by safe haven for gold. the gold prices is an economic and political barometer not of just the economy but political well-being of the world. there's another saber-rattling. korea firing rockets. you have problems in the middle east. you have major problems that we haven't seen lately because of fiscal cliff and the headlines from italy and spain and of course portugal and greece is not finished yet. >> right. >> so there's plenty of problems. we're going to return back to basics after the fiscal cliff. people will say, you know what, i do need some place to put my money. >> probably not in the backyard or und
new sales. 400,000 cars that were damaged over a period of time in the storms. 250,000 superstorm sandy here. 40,000 pounds of copper go into a car. housing has turned up a little bit. you have 400 pounds of copper in every new home at least, not even the commercial buildings. >> george -- >> that could being. >> -- would you say that gold is no longer a good safe haven? to me it's been acting like a risk asset and not a safe haven anymore. >> people don't understand...
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Dec 27, 2012
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you have sandy. the weather hasn't been cooperating. so, there's some real consumer downturn as well. >> and what are you able to tell us about the decisions that your clients are making with you? you are trading leases all the time, presumably, all the big, high-street names. is there optimism? what are the leases you are signing at the moment, higher than lower than perhaps we had six months or a year ago? >> the national retailers continue to be very optimistic about the next couple of years. we are in a recovery, not with sa standing that the fiscal cliff. i think most of the national retailers continue to be optimistic about where they are going the next couple of years. lots of leases are being signed. store counts are being expanded. the retailers, in general, have stronger balance sheets and they are ready to grow again. hopefully, this will be just a temporary pause in terms of the fiscal situation. >> hey, david, i'm curious you when we are sitting here and just after the christmas holiday, what data point do you look to give
you have sandy. the weather hasn't been cooperating. so, there's some real consumer downturn as well. >> and what are you able to tell us about the decisions that your clients are making with you? you are trading leases all the time, presumably, all the big, high-street names. is there optimism? what are the leases you are signing at the moment, higher than lower than perhaps we had six months or a year ago? >> the national retailers continue to be very optimistic about the next...
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Dec 28, 2012
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we've got a bump from sandy. so if we could just fix that up, i think we'll be okay. >> what do you think is the market reaction if we come, you know, in on monday, and there's some sort of a mini deal? what does that do to us? >> listen, i think we'll be okay here. the first and second quarter of next year are going to be okay, cliff or not. they're going to get something together. it may be sort of a sloppy deal, just, you know, a small deal, that lead us into more negotiations -- >> but is the event a mini deal or is the mini deal a grand bargain? >> they'll come up with a mini deal. it's taken them this long to get here. how can we anticipate they'll get significant done. they'll get some sort of stopgap measure done and we'll see a little bit of stability. stop seeing all the negativity that's surrounding us. we're dead red here. >> gordon, if you recall that 2008 period, the market was going 400, 500, 600, a 60-point drop in the heat of the crisis. why is the equity market being relatively stable to that co
we've got a bump from sandy. so if we could just fix that up, i think we'll be okay. >> what do you think is the market reaction if we come, you know, in on monday, and there's some sort of a mini deal? what does that do to us? >> listen, i think we'll be okay here. the first and second quarter of next year are going to be okay, cliff or not. they're going to get something together. it may be sort of a sloppy deal, just, you know, a small deal, that lead us into more negotiations --...